The pandemic is not only still with us, it is currently surging in areas of the country which, until recently, were not seriously impacted. And while churches in many states are just now resuming in-person, indoors worship, the future of our congregational ministries can still seem precarious and uncertain.

While we never want to minimize the importance of believers’ being able to experience Christian worship and fellowship in each other’s physical presence, we do need, now more than ever, to pay attention to the online presence of our ministries.

I recently came across an article by Chuck Lawless, from the Billy Graham School of World Missions, on the “Signs of a Bad Church Website.” This is a summary of his article in my own words.

1. The church does not even have a website!  This is just not an option anymore—especially with online ministries becoming essential due to the pandemic. Remember: This health crisis could last a while. Yet I am still finding LCMC and NALC churches which have no website!

2. The website is inadequate.  These are websites I bring up on my laptop and think, “Why did they even bother?” A totally inadequate and poorly designed website gives a poor initial impression to any potential visitor who is “checking you out” online.

3. Your website has no contact information.  It should include the pastor’s name, church email address, and phone number. 

4. The website has no information about your worship services.

5. The information on your website is not updated and even includes event dates that have already taken place! This is the most common issue I have found while checking on hundreds of Lutheran church websites. Lenten worship service information is not helpful when it is still on your site in July!

6. Spelling or grammatical errors are common. Find a volunteer who will proofread, beforehand, any information the pastor or administrator/secretary is about to post on your website.

7. No driving directions are provided.  Not everyone uses Google Maps. Brief, written directions to your location will be helpful.

8. No recorded or streamed sermons are available. As long as there is public anxiety about gathering indoors for worship, this is extremely important.

9. Childcare information is not provided. If you provide childcare during worship, mention that fact. Nesting stage, potential first-time visitors want to know.

10. A brief summary of your congregation’s core beliefs.  Be sure to avoid terms that might be meaningless or confusing to the unchurched. LCMC and NALC congregations have the option of using a summary of the core beliefs from their national church websites. But don’t hesitate to add your own, more personal “mission statement” as an introduction to any list of your national church’s core beliefs.

Lutheran CORE’s editor, Kim Smith, designed and maintains Lutheran CORE’s website. She can be reached at lcorewebmail@gmail.com.

As I sit here, under Oregon’s version of quarantine, I have been reflecting on the extraordinary challenges facing American society in general, but also local churches in particular. Even with the uncertainties of how the current pandemic will be playing out over the next six to eighteen months, there are a few predictions I think we can make with a relatively high degree of confidence.

Predictions

First, no matter how quickly and efficiently local and state governments suspend legal restrictions to allow businesses, schools, and churches to reopen, this will not result in an immediate return to the life we knew before this last January. And it’s not just cruise lines and airlines who will discover that it might take one to two years to return to “business as usual”; this will also be true for small, local businesses and, I dare say, many churches. My oldest son, Jason, is CEO of the non-profit Oregon Restaurant and Lodging Association. As you can imagine, the business owners he serves have seen a virtual collapse of their industry. And for many of them their restaurants and hotels will never reopen. So besides trying to help his members access limited federal and state loans to survive in the short-term, Jason is now, with his staff, wrestling with how he can advise his members when it comes to the challenge of motivating their customers to return once business restrictions are lifted. Many pastors and church leaders will be facing a similar challenge in the months ahead.

Second, until we have an effective and available vaccine, there will be on-going anxiety and uncertainty in many if not most American communities. Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, put it well when quoted in the April 22^nd issue of The Washington Post. “As a country, we’re unprepared not just logistically but mentally for this next phase.” He expressed, in this article, that most Americans do not grasp the difficult months ahead and the likelihood of repeated surges of the virus. “For a while, people were told all we need is to get past the peak. Then, they started hearing all we need is testing…The way you prepare people for a sprint and marathon are very different. As a country, we are utterly unprepared for the marathon ahead.” I anticipate that while most of the country begins “opening up”, the national media will be quick to highlight news stories of those communities which will occasionally be dealing with local outbreaks. This will result in increased anxiety in the rest of the country; even to some degree in communities that have no covid-19 patients in their local hospital. And I suspect this anxiety will be especially prevalent among older adults concerned about their own personal vulnerabilities to this virus. Because of this, pastors and lay leaders need to factor in the median age of their members when trying to anticipate the ministry challenges ahead.

The above predictions have profound implications for local congregations. And they will impact, in particular, four areas of congregational life: community service, worship ministries, member care, and financial giving.

1. Community Service Outreach It is essential, given the scope of the financial damage our nation has incurred in just the last couple of months, that Christian congregations be proactive in reaching out to those in need, especially in their local communities. Our economy is already in a new, major recession. Millions are suddenly out of work, and food banks across the country have been inundated by unprecedented numbers of people in need of emergency assistance. The local church needs to step up, for two reasons:  First, because it has always been our scriptural mandate. And second, because each of our congregations will likely be judged, by many of the unchurched and dechurched members of our communities, based on how we respond to those in need during this national crisis. Virtually every community now has significant numbers of residents who are poor, unemployed, and struggling to address their most basic financial needs. In addition, there are many people who are struggling with the social isolation that has become the by-product of this pandemic.

2. Worship Ministries  A little historical perspective: This is the first time in U.S. history that there has been a nation-wide, mass closure of churches. Not even during the 1918 influenza epidemic did so high a percentage of churches have to close. So needless to say, these are “uncharted waters.” Recently the American Enterprise Institute published, in the March 29^th issue of The New York Times, a detailed plan for what restrictions should be maintained in local communities before our return to some kind of “normal”. One particular recommendation caught my attention: That assemblies of more than fifty people be prohibited until there is an available and effective vaccine. So, let’s imagine that this becomes the norm. What would the consequences be for local churches? Well, that depends, to a large degree, on congregational size. For mid-sized and larger churches this will mean depending on a quality, on-going, weekly online worship ministry; maybe through 2021! For smaller churches, it will mean limiting the size of their worship gatherings; possibly offering two weekly services instead of one in order that neither service exceed 50 worshipers. One idea, before regular services resume, is to survey your members regarding what kind of precautions they would prefer in order to give them “peace of mind” regarding public assembly.

3. Member Care  I think it’s imperative that every congregation be even more vigilant than usual in monitoring the well-being of their members. I’m concerned that this might not be taking place in mid-sized and larger churches where it’s more difficult, even in “normal times”, to provide for the emotional and spiritual needs of individual members. And there is nothing “normal” about these current “times”! This might be a good time to organize a team of volunteers to take the lead on guaranteeing that every member is being cared for. After all, the social isolation alone is making this an incredibly difficult time for many of our people. And don’t forget your members who are health care workers and first responders. Many of them are dealing with extraordinary and unprecedented levels of stress and anxiety.

4. Finally, the challenge of Financial Giving. My guess is that a great many churches will be closing their doors over the next couple of years. The combination of pandemic anxiety, cancelled worship services, and the new economic crisis will require very proactive stewardship strategies in the months ahead. This is the time for pastors and congregational leaders to prayerfully discuss ways to encourage members to continue in the faithful stewardship of their financial resources.

Congregations in Transition (CiT) coaching has always, from its beginning, been available as an expenses-only, volunteer coaching ministry. But CiT can now provide assistance even when a church finds the cost of an on-site visit by the coach to be an obstacle to its participation. This means that even small and geographically more isolated churches can now afford the services of a trained CiT coach. In fact, the only cost to a church taking advantage of this new online, distance-coaching version of CiT is the initial registration fee of $150 paid to Lutheran CORE.

This means months of coaching guidance—at virtually no cost—to help your congregational leaders navigate through what can be an extremely challenging time in the life of your church. And, in the case of LCMC churches, your CiT coach can advise you not only in the initial period following your pastor’s departure, but also in your search for your next pastor.

            So how can distance, online coaching make a difference for your church? Let me answer that question based on what I have discovered in working with congregations over this last year. I have found that effective coaching of transition teams can take place with conference phone calls, individual phone conversations, and through regular, on-going email communications. And I should not have been surprised. The professional coaching industry—whether church-related or secular—is based, in large part, on the model of online and phone communication, not face-to-face meetings. And unlike forty years ago, long-distance phone calls are free, and on-going written communication can be by email or text, not snail-mail.

            The primary key to making this kind of distance coaching effective is that individual phone calls, conference phone calls, and video conference meetings are based on written answers, from church leaders, to questions that have been provided by the coach in advance of each meeting. Then the answers to these questions are emailed back to the coach, and set the agenda for the subsequent meeting.

            But how does the coach become personally acquainted with transition team members when there is no on-site visit? Through an individual phone conversation with each team member. (Conversations—you guessed it—based on each team member’s responses to questions he/she has received in advance of that phone call.) Then, after these individual phone conversations, the first meeting of the entire team with the coach is by video conference. (Subsequent team sessions can be by conference phone call.)

            Through this kind of ministry your lay leaders can learn—from the coach—about the collective experiences of churches that have successfully addressed the challenges inherent in a period of transition. Additional information about Congregations in Transition can be found on the Lutheran CORE website.

            How can you inquire—before formally signing up—as to whether CiT can help your congregation? Simple. Contact me, CiT Director Don Brandt, either by phone or email. I hope to hear from you.

Dr. Don Brandt
503-559-2034
pastordonbrandt@gmail.com

Note: Recommendations and references are available from congregations working with CiT. Click here for more information on CiT.

There are at least two significant and alarming trends confronting American church bodies in general, and mainline Protestants in particular.

One is the developing clergy supply crisis, and the second is the aging and upcoming precipitous decline of most of our congregations.

Both of these trends are related, to some degree, to the generational issue of aging Boomers. The single most eye-opening statistic—reported on repeatedly by PEW Research—is that less than half as many Millennials are attending church than was the case for their Boomer parents back in the 1980’s and 1990’s. I still remember a particular cover story of Time Magazine back in 1993. It was the April 5^th issue. (I just Googled it.) The quote on the cover of that issue was “The Baby Boom Goes Back to Church.” Needless to say, there has been no story, in the last decade, reporting a similar trend among Millennials.

Of course the decline of mainline Protestant churches is also due, in large part, to the on-going and accelerating secularization of American culture. And that reality is taking a toll on all national church bodies. But the more generational realities of our future are not simply about an inflated view of my own generation’s importance. This is about demographic realities helping us to see and clarify the urgency of what is before us as the Body of Christ. And to put it bluntly, the reason why the clergy supply crisis will be upon us sooner than the dramatic, precipitous decline in overall church membership is this: Most Boomers will, like me, have the good fortune to be retiring before they make the transition to assisted living and/or death.

Clergy Supply Crisis

What’s going on in the ELCA gives us a convenient window into what the LCMC and NALC will be facing. As I shared in previous articles, the ELCA is facing a major crisis with both clergy supply and their projected membership decline in the very near future. And aggravating these largely demographic realities is the rapid secularization of ELCA organizational culture. The ELCA’s Department of Research and Evaluation projects —based on the aging of their membership and the decline in baptisms — that by 2041 there will be less than 16,000 members worshiping — nationally —on a typical Sunday! That compares to 864,000 worshiping as of the end of 2018. And the issue of clergy supply for the ELCA? That crisis has already arrived. As of June of 2019 there were 2,776 empty pulpits out of a total of approximately 9,000 congregations.

Two Strategies

With Lutheran CORE’s Congregations in Transition (CiT) ministry we are focused on both a short-term and long-term strategy to help LCMC, NALC and orthodox ELCA congregations address both of these daunting challenges. And let’s not deceive ourselves. Our commitment—as orthodox clergy and congregations—to a Scripture-focused and more evangelistic worldview does not make us immune to the challenges the ELCA is facing. Somewhat more insulated perhaps, but not immune.

1st Century Model for Ministry

The CiT approach to congregational ministry is, overall, the empowerment of the laity. First, because it is the biblical, 1^st century model for ministry and outreach; and second, because an unhealthy dependence on the availability of ordained, full-time clergy will not even be a future option for many of our congregations.

Our mission, with CiT, is inspired by texts like 1^st Peter, chapter two, verses 4-5. Writing to the laity of his generation, Peter declares:

…You also, like living stones, are being built into a spiritual house to be a holy priesthood, offering spiritual sacrifices acceptable to God through Jesus Christ.

Gifted Transition Teams

The three congregations (all LCMC) I am currently coaching are all facing the retirement of their only pastor. While each of these rural/small-town churches are just large enough to still afford a future full-time pastor, they are all rapidly aging worship communities who are very aware of their significant membership decline over the last twenty years. But here’s the good news: Their three transition teams are comprised of incredibly gifted and committed lay leaders. And these lay leaders are very invested in the current and future ministries of their congregations. My role is to insure that these members (of the priesthood we all share in Christ Jesus) will be motivated to step forward and lead their congregations even if the search for their next pastor takes longer than anticipated.

I had many short-comings in my 40 years of ministry as a parish pastor. However, being a gatekeeper was not one of them. In fact my greatest joy in ministry was enlisting, equipping and motivating members to use their God-given gifts and abilities to serve their congregations and surrounding communities. This is now, more than ever, the best hope for the Body of Christ: to facilitate the ministry of the laity in the face of significant challenges faced by today’s church. This will require both faith and creativity on our part. But let us never underestimate what God can accomplish, despite any and all obstacles, through the incredible gifts of our (non-ordained) brothers and sisters in Christ.

The word is definitely getting around.  The ELCA’s Office of Research and Evaluation, this last spring, released the results of their projection regarding anticipated ELCA decline over the next 31 years.  The rather shocking projection is as follows, and is based on the starting point of membership and worship statistics as of the end of 2017.    

ELCA Paper Projects Drastic Decline in Membership

So ELCA membership as of 2017 was 3.4 million.  The projection for 2050 is that membership will be only 67,000!  That’s right, 67,000.

And weekly worship attendance?  As of 2017 just under 900,000 people worshiped at ELCA congregations in a typical week.  The projection, which in this case is for 2041, is that weekly worship attendance will be only 16,000.  You read that correctly: 16,000.

Implications for the LCMC and NALC

So what, if any, are the conclusions and/or implications of these predictions when it comes to confessing Lutheran congregations in the LCMC and NALC?  I can think of at least three.

1.  These predictions regarding the rate of the ELCA’s decline are probably based, to a degree, on the rate of decline between 2009 and 2012.  That was the period when ELCA decline accelerated — dramatically — due to the policy changes in August of 2009.  My point?  The ELCA’s rate of decline has not been as dramatic in the last seven years.  Granted, the ELCA continues to lose tens of thousands of members each year.  And granted, the exodus of most of the ELCA’s more evangelistic churches has had a lasting and permanent effect on its statistical “bottom line.”  However, my guess is that the projections for 2041 and 2050 will not be quite as bleak as predicted.  They will still be dramatic, though.  After all, when the ELCA National Assembly passes an amendment questioning whether Lutherans can ethically witness to people of other faiths, we can’t expect their members and congregations to be engaged in evangelistic outreach.

2. We need to acknowledge that these dire projections are emblematic of demographic trends that, to some degree, are impacting all mainline Protestant bodies.  So while I suspect NALC and LCMC congregations will fare better than the ELCA between now and 2050, here is the painful truth: We too are rapidly aging faith communities.  And we, like the ELCA, have a membership that is considerably older than both the general U.S. population and, I might add, older than most evangelical/non-denominational churches.  So we best not smirk or gloat at these projections from the Office of Research and Evaluation.

3. Third, these ELCA projections should serve as a wake-up call when it comes to our generational challenges in the NALC and LCMC.

Keychain Leadership

One of the congregations that is using the Congregations in Transition process recently signed up for the Fuller Seminary Youth Institute “Growing Young Assessment.”  This assessment is based on the Institute’s book entitled Growing Young.  After completing the assessment the Institute suggested this congregation focus on “Keychain Leadership.”  “Keychain Leadership” is about focusing on opportunities to “hand over the keys” of leadership to young adults, teens, and parents with young children.  The Fuller Youth Institute also suggested this church “prioritize” young people in the life of the congregation, and encourage older members to “dive deeper” into relationships with younger members.  One specific example mentioned in the assessment was to have older members enter into “coaching” relationships with teens and younger adults.

I suspect these suggestions might be appropriate for a great many of our congregations.

It Might Be Time

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, by 2034 the U.S. population 65 and older will exceed the population under 18.  One American journalist calls this the “coming gerontocracy.”  Many of our LCMC and NALC congregations are already there.  It might be  time to start “handing over the keys.”