Pastor Don Brandt

The Lutheran Congregations in Mission for Christ (LCMC), on its website, lists the average worship attendance of each of their 818 U.S. congregations.  This data represents a veritable “treasure trove” of information when it comes to how many of these congregations might be facing a crisis in the coming years concerning the viability of their ministries.  (This kind of information, by the way, is not available on the NALC or ELCA websites.)  Regarding the accuracy of these numbers, we need to keep in mind that the diligence of congregations in regularly updating their reported average attendance is probably a “mixed bag”.  To my knowledge the LCMC does not contact their churches each year to insure that the reported attendance figure is up to date.  And there’s another reality to consider: the cross-denominational impact of the pandemic on worship attendance.  We know that many churches saw their attendance drop between 10 and 40 percent between 2020 and 2023.  And some churches never fully recovered their losses in terms of in-person average attendance.  However, to avoid argument, I will assume that the LCMC attendance data is reasonably accurate and up to date.

Before summarizing this data I want to pose this question: At what point—when it comes to average attendance—are most churches facing nothing less than an existential crisis?  And for those churches facing such a crisis is there anything that can and/or should be done to maintain and preserve the viability of their congregational ministries?  Also, at what point do these smaller churches need to be asking whether they will always be able to assume the availability of an ordained pastor to lead them?

The following information represents the results of my online “survey.”  Of the 818 LCMC churches in the U.S. 484 churches report an average weekly worship attendance of 75 or less.  And of these churches, 276 report a weekly attendance of 40 or less.  Now given what I know regarding the current costs involved in calling a full-time pastor, I believe many of these 484 churches will be unable, in the coming years, to afford a full-time pastor’s salary with benefits and housing.  And because of the current clergy shortage, qualified pastors who are looking for a call usually have more than one opportunity to consider.  This gives a distinct advantage to those congregations that are able to offer the better salary and benefits package.  (In other words, usually larger churches.)

So what of the possibility of calling a part-time ordained pastor; especially when it comes to the 276 churches that have 40 or fewer people in worship each week?  This is definitely a possibility for churches that can no longer afford a full-time pastor.  However, as with full-time candidates, there is also a shortage of part-time pastors.  And with part-time pastors, call committees typically need to find a candidate that is close enough to commute to their community.  This factor, above all, limits the options when it comes to finding a qualified part-time pastor, especially in rural settings.  Then the usual fallback option is to find one or more “supply preachers” who live within driving distance of the congregation.  One more possibility to consider for these churches: enlist (and “train?”) one or two (or more) active members to share preaching responsibilities.

Here is the “bottom line”; too many smaller churches are making the erroneous assumption that they can stake their congregation’s future on always being able to find, call and afford an ordained pastor.  This is simply not the case for most of these smaller congregations.  When considering the LCMC, 60% of their congregations serve 75 or fewer worshipers in a typical week.  And over one-third of their churches serve 40 or less worshipers.

It is time for smaller congregations to consider long-term ministry strategies that do not assume the ongoing availability of ordained pastors.  Here—on a more constructive note—are some options that congregational leaders from these churches need to consider.  And sooner rather than later.

1. Consider whether one, two or three active members might be enlisted and trained to become part-time lay ministers for your congregation.  Their “training” could be online; either from Lutheran seminaries (like St. Paul Seminary), or through lay minister training programs like Beyond the River Academy or the LCMC Texas Mission District’s Harvest Workers ministry.  Online courses might focus on biblical studies, Lutheran theology, and preaching.
2. Check out Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI), which would mean having an “outside” coach to help your congregation address this ministry challenge.  (Full disclosure: I am the person for you to contact to find out more about CLI.)
3. Contact your regional mission district leader and ask for one or two names of competent retired Lutheran pastors who might be willing to enter into an online coaching relationship with your church council.  The primary focus of such a relationship is to prepare your congregation for a future that might not necessarily include an ordained pastor.
4. And the best long-term strategy might be do “raise up” someone among your active members who would consider eventually becoming your future ordained pastor.  This person might be active retired, or someone younger who would become a bi-vocational pastor, or a stay-at-home parent who has reached the empty-nest stage of life.  Obviously not all congregations have such a potential “candidate.” However, my guess is that too few congregations are even asking the question as to whether such a person is already a part of their congregational life.

What about your congregation?  Are you currently without a pastor?  Or is your current pastor close to retirement?  Does your church have an average weekly attendance of (approximately) 75 or less?  Or 40 or less?  Has your attendance been declining over the last five years?  Or longer?  If you have been in decline, and that decline continues, what do you anticipate your attendance will be in 2030?  What do you guess is the average age of your active members?  Is it old enough where your decline might actually accelerate?

These are difficult questions to even reflect upon, let alone discuss with your lay leaders.  However, this is a discussion smaller congregations definitely need to have.  We are entering an era when most congregations will not be able to depend on available ordained pastoral leadership.  We cannot afford to put off confronting this ministry challenge.  It’s time to act.

If you have any questions for me, including whether I can be of some assistance, email me at…

pastordonbrandt@gmail.com

 

Given the increasing shortage of ordained pastors available for call, now is the time when many churches will need to take the initiative to enlist one or two (or three) active members to be equipped and eventually called to serve their own congregation.

Now before you dismiss this strategy as totally impractical, first consider the difficulties involved in finding and calling a full-time ordained pastor in the next few years.  Then I will describe one possible scenario where a congregation chooses to equip and call one or two (or three) of their own members to serve in a pastoral role.

So first, to answer the question: just how difficult could it be in 2024, or 2025, to fill your congregation’s pastoral vacancy?  Glad you asked.  The answer, in part, comes down to basic math.  There are simply too many vacancies for too few available pastors.  And the small number of pastors who are looking for a call have too many options.  This means applicants for your vacancy will often be comparing your church with other vacant churches where they are also interviewing. 

However, it is not just about the quantity of available pastors, it’s often about the quality.  Many of the pastors out “looking” are not vetted; and might not be qualified to serve your church.  This is especially true in the LCMC, where their online “call packet” information makes it clear that vetting your applicants is entirely your congregation’s responsibility.

One more challenge related to the current clergy supply shortage: it will only become more severe in the coming years.  Projections are that there will be twice as many pastors retiring ten years from now than are retiring in 2024.

So now for a hypothetical example of how a congregation—Grace Lutheran—is addressing its pastoral vacancy.  It involves the following steps:

1. Once the congregation’s retiring pastor—who served Grace for 15 years—departed, the Church Council organized a transition team to consider how to move forward when the larger church is dealing with an unprecedented clergy shortage.  That transition team, after meeting for a couple of months, recommends that the Council pursue a two-prong strategy to address their vacancy.  First, they recommend organizing a call committee to “test the waters’ regarding whether the “right” pastor is out there; whether to serve as an interim or more “permanent” pastor.  The second recommendation is that, while the call committee begins this search, the Council begin a discernment process as to whether one or two (or three) active members can be convinced and recruited to take at least one seminary online course.  This initial course would be a way for these members to consider a seminary education and, hopefully, eventual ordination.  The cost of this seminary course would be covered by the congregation.

2. The Council’s first challenge is, of course, one of discernment.  In other words, identifying the right members to approach regarding this opportunity.  Prayer would play a large role as the Council moves forward.  Those considered would be active members who are already known by name by the majority of church members.  Just as important, they would be members who are recognized as having proven ministry gifts.

3. Given the long-term scope of this strategy, those approached would ideally be 60 years of age or younger.  That way they would potentially be able to serve the congregation in a pastoral role for years to come.

4. Those approached and recruited for this ministry opportunity would hopefully have a college degree. This would make them immediately able to pursue a seminary education without additional schooling.

5. These future pastoral ministers could either be currently working full-time (after all it’s only one initial online course) or part-time; or be active retired; or be a nesting-stage or empty-nester parent not working outside the home; or currently be serving the church as support staff.

6. Which initial seminary course would they be taking?  Negotiable.  I would recommend either Biblical studies, preaching, or Lutheran Confessions.

7. Who would these “recruits” be accountable to as they begin this online course?  Either the Church Council or a mentoring team of two to four lay leaders appointed by the Council.

8. What would the financial cost be to the congregation?  Minimal.  Initially, just the cost of the online seminary course(s). However if these members are also recruited to serve in some ministerial role while taking this course, they should be given a stipend as compensation.

I have, since 2019, provided some level of assistance to 38 different congregations dealing with a pastoral vacancy.  Most of these congregations initially approached their vacancy with the assumption that finding and calling a new pastor is essentially the same challenge it was ten to twenty years ago.

Nothing could be further from the truth.  The current shortage of qualified pastors available for call is unprecedented in my lifetime.  (And I’m seventy-two!)

This crisis is not something that can be entirely addressed by top-down denominational strategies.  Not only are such top-down strategies inadequate in 2024; they will be increasingly insufficient as long as the number of available pastors continues to plummet in the coming years.

So if top-down, national-church initiatives prove inadequate, what can the local church dealing with a vacancy possibly do?  Take ownership in addressing your long-term need for pastoral leadership.  In other words, “raise up” competent and gifted future pastoral leaders from among your own congregational members. 

And if your church is, or soon will be facing a pastoral vacancy, where do you begin?  By doing four things:

1. Read this article a second time.

2. Start praying; asking God for guidance when it comes to identifying active members of your church who have the personal integrity and the proven ministry gifts to consider becoming a pastor.

3. Approach your congregational leaders about considering some version of the above ministry strategy.

4. And if you initially need to talk with someone who is not a part of your congregation about how to proceed, email me, Don Brandt, at pastordonbrandt@gmail.com.

For an additional written resource related to this ministry challenge you can click on the link below.

Grace and peace,

Pastor Don Brandt

Lutheran CORE’s Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI)

“How Your Congregation Can Identify, Enlist and Train Part-time Lay Ministers”

 

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This article is written especially for smaller congregations that are either 1) already experiencing a pastoral vacancy, or 2) know that their solo pastor will be retiring within the next one or two years. If your congregation fits this description it is essential that you understand the full scope of the challenges you will face, or already are facing, when it comes to finding and calling your next pastor.

You might be hesitating to read further.  After all, you might be convinced that the “right” pastor is out there, and the Holy Spirit will undoubtedly lead him or her to your congregation.  But know this: The current shortage of Lutheran pastors is unprecedented.  Moreover, this shortage is unprecedented in my lifetime…and I was born in 1951!

However, if you keep reading you will learn of a congregational ministry strategy that provides you with a viable “Plan B” if and when you decide that it is highly unlikely that your congregation will—in the near future—be able to identify and call the “right” pastor.  And please note: Lutheran CORE is ready to come alongside your congregation to help you address this ministry challenge.  Now back to the matter of “unprecedented in my lifetime.”

About the only advantage to being 72 is all the recent history I have witnessed.  And in my lifetime I have witnessed phenomenal and dramatic changes in the mainline Protestant church in general, and the Lutheran church in particular.

First there is my family history.  I am a third-generation Lutheran pastor.  My parents were missionaries in China when, in 1949, they and my older sister had to be evacuated when the Communists took over the country.  My father—Les Brandt—subsequently had parish ministry calls in Minnesota and North Dakota; i.e., “Luther-land”.  In 1958 my father was called to start a new congregation in Orange County, California.  This was when Southern California was experiencing a significant migration of Midwestern Lutherans to that part of the country.  (In fact, Orange County, in the 1950’s, experienced a 278% growth in its total population!)

Now for what I personally experienced as a member of the Baby Boom generation.  In that rapidly-growing Orange County congregation I was surrounded by the children of my generation; children whose parents expected them to attend church and Sunday school.  Not surprisingly, my experience growing up in the church was profoundly impacted by being a part of what was then the largest generation in American history.  This included being a part of active church youth groups, and working for Lutheran Student Movement in the early 1970’s.  When I started Luther seminary in 1974 all the dorm rooms were occupied and the student body was close to 600 students.  (And there were then seven other Lutheran seminaries I could have attended.)  When I graduated (from Wartburg Seminary) there were only three students out of a class of 60 who had a call by the time of graduation.  Fact was there were far more graduates than there were available calls. 

Then, on a less personal note, there is the matter of the milestones in American church history I have witnessed.  The year 1960 was the year when 63% of Americans were members of Christian congregations.  In 2020 it was 47%.  In 1960 two-thirds of Americans identified as Protestants; mostly belonging to mainline churches.  Today less than 15% of Americans are part of mainline denominations.  As recently as the 1980’s and 1990’s a great many Lutheran congregations were benefiting from the phenomenon of nesting-stage Boomers who were returning to church because they decided that church would be “good for the kids”.  In one article about Boomer parents returning to church the weekly magazine of the Los Angeles Times quoted a parent who said, “I was pretty wild as a teen and young adult.  But now I am a father and I want my kids to have some values.”

So much for nostalgia.  In 2024 the picture is far more bleak.  And one of the dramatic examples of this—in addition to only 15% of Americans currently being a part of mainline Protestant churches—is the crisis when it comes to too few pastors available for too many pastoral vacancies.  The easiest way to explain this clergy supply shortage is to understand two current realities:

1. Too many Boomer pastors are retiring.  And the youngest Boomer pastors will not reach the age of 65 until 2029.  This means that, for at least the next five years, the number of vacancies will only increase.

2. There are far too few men and women pursuing a seminary education.  And many of these students will graduate at an older age than used to be the case; meaning that their time as active parish pastors will be relatively short.

Now for the unique challenges when it comes to smaller congregations identifying and calling the “right” pastor.  The current reality is that smaller congregations are at a distinct disadvantage even when they are able to provide an adequate salary package.  With too many calls for too few candidates, pastors today have multiple call options.  And most of them are applying for call opportunities at mid-sized and larger churches. 

Finally, the good news.  Lutheran CORE is offering coaching assistance for smaller Lutheran congregations who are already looking for a pastor, or who soon will be.  This ministry is the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative, or CLI.  One important key to this particular ministry is to tap into the growing number of active, retired Boomer Lutheran pastors.  Some of these pastors are ready to coach a church, like yours, as you address the current clergy supply crisis.  (This would be online coaching, not in-person.)  With CLI your congregational leaders would be mentored by a capable pastor as you enlist and train a few members of your congregation to take on the role of lay ministers. 

Details about the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative can be found here on the Lutheran CORE website.  Also, click here to read  a previous article which provides one possible, detailed scenario regarding how a congregation can launch this type of ministry.  And then, if you still have questions and want to communicate with a human being, contact me directly.  I would welcome the opportunity to connect with you; either by email or phone.

Pastor Don Brandt

Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative (CLI)

pastordonbrandt@gmail.com

503-559-2034

We are very grateful for all of the ways in which retired NALC pastor Don Brandt enhances the ministry of Lutheran CORE.  He has an article in every issue of our bi-monthly newsletter.  In these articles he draws on his decades of ministry experience – both serving as pastor of a congregation and consulting with congregations – as well as his many years of research and writing.  We want Lutheran CORE to be a Network for Confessing Lutherans as well as a Voice for Biblical Truth.  We want to provide resources for pastors, lay people, church leaders, and congregations in addition to our work of alerting people to ways in which the historic, Biblical, confessional Christian faith is at risk. 

For several years Don has been providing a consulting service through the Congregations in Transition (CiT) ministry initiative.  Through this ministry he has worked with transition teams – both in situations where the pastor has already retired or resigned to take another call as well as in situations where the pastor has not yet left but soon will be leaving.  He has also worked with call committees in their search for a new pastor.  At this point Pastor Brandt has provided some level of coaching support for twenty-five congregations.  Twenty-one of these congregations are LCMC, three are ELCA, and one is dual-rostered. 

Pastor Brandt has also written powerfully about a dynamic that church leaders and congregational call committees are only too familiar with – the growing shortage of pastors available for call.  This shortage is reaching crisis proportions.

He has written convincingly about the need for many congregations – especially smaller and/or more remote congregations – to take seriously the fact that they might not be able to find another ordained pastor to call.  Instead they may need to transition to a lay-led ministry model in order for the congregation to be able to continue to exist and do God’s work. 

But Pastor Brandt is not just someone who will describe a problem.  He is also someone who will do something about the problem.  And even beyond that, he is someone who will develop a plan so that others also can become involved in doing something about the problem.

Here is a link to the Congregational Lay Leadership Initiative (CLI) page on our website.  Clicking on the link you will find such resources as a description of the concept, including frequently asked questions, as well as a list of steps that a congregation can take to identify, enlist, and train part-time lay ministers.

We are very grateful for the fact that LCMC and the NALC have a similar concern and are taking positive steps so that all congregations can have trained leaders.  It is going to take the best efforts of all of us to address this major concern.  

I frequently hear from congregations that are unable to find a pastor to call or that have found a retired pastor who is able and willing to come one or two times a month but then lay members provide worship leadership on the other Sundays.  We are very grateful to all retired pastors who are willing to serve – even if not every Sunday and even if serving means traveling a considerable distance.  And we thank God for the members of congregations who deeply love their Lord and their church so that they are willing to step up and lead worship and give the message.  I know that some people feel that these lay leaders should receive sufficient training so that they would be ordained.  But I know of situations where I believe that willing and capable lay leaders would be “scared off” if they knew that they would have to be ordained.  Then that congregation might have to close because of a lack of worship leadership. 

Please notice that the Congregational Lay Leadership Initiative (CLI) calls upon retired pastors who would be willing to come alongside of these lay ministers, meeting with them online once a month and providing ongoing counsel and support.  If you would be willing to consider being one of these mentor/coaches please let us know.  We have a document which will tell you more of what would be involved. 

Perhaps my perspective is somewhat distorted by being one among so many retired or retiring Boomer pastors.  After all, the Boomer generation has been accused—often justifiably—of having an inflated view of its own importance.

However, age does sometimes bring a degree of historical perspective.  So allow me to share, from my own professional life, how dramatically the Lutheran church has changed, in at least one way, since I graduated from seminary back in 1981.  My seminary class was comprised of just over sixty graduates; virtually all of us seeking our first call and ordination.  However, at that time there were far more Lutheran seminary graduates in the U.S. than there were available calls.  As a result, on graduation day at my seminary there were only three of us who knew where our first call would be.  The rest of the class would simply have to wait; in some cases for over a year.

For some additional perspective regarding today’s clergy shortage, consider the dramatic differences when it comes to the current seminary experience and what graduates—and call committees—can expect in 2023:

1. The number of Lutheran seminary graduates today who have an M.Div degree is probably less than 25% of the number of graduates back in 1981.  And the number of vacant congregations without a pastor has increased dramatically.
2. Unlike in 1981, when the great majority of seminary students were studying full-time and living either on campus or within commuting distance, the majority of seminary students in 2023 are studying almost entirely online.  And consider just one implication of this new norm: Online seminary students—logistically—often will not and cannot be adequately vetted by seminary faculty.  This means that call committees in 2023 are often looking at applicants that have not, in any meaningful way, been “screened” as to whether they are suitable candidates for call and ordination.
3. Call committees in 2023 are, in some cases, unfortunately “settling” for candidates who might not be suitable for their call.  Why? Because of an incredible shortage of qualified applicants for their position.
4. The shortage of viable seminary graduates and currently serving pastors available for call has not yet plateaued.  Instead, this shortage is only growing more severe.  And this growing crisis will last at least until the last serving Boomer pastors retire.  As of this year Boomers are between the ages of 59 and 77. In other words, it is only in 2029 that the youngest Boomers will reach the age of 65.
5. The pandemic has accelerated the rate at which pastors are leaving full-time ministry.  This is due in part to a significant number of pastors who had to deal with pandemic-related congregational conflict.

Also contributing to these resignations is the stress experienced by pastors who have seen a pandemic-related, demoralizing decrease in in-person worship attendance compared to early 2020.

Enough in regard to the challenges the church is facing now and over at least the next six years.  What can we do as lay leaders and pastors to address this crisis?  To begin with, we need to acknowledge that no single ministry program or strategy will suffice.  Why?  Because this crisis is too systemic and formidable for a single, simple “fix”.  However, there are at least two church-wide strengths that, if capitalized on, could make a real difference. 

One is the fact that a great many competent and faithful Boomer pastors have retired over the last decade.  I am convinced that many of them would be willing to step forward to mentor and coach a single congregation that is dealing with an unfilled vacancy.  In some cases this could mean serving in a compensated part-time interim role if the pastor is living within a reasonable distance from the church.  In other cases, a retired pastor could volunteer to serve as a mentor and coach—at a distance—to congregational leaders.  This would involve coaching online and by phone.  In this scenario the pastor would be volunteering his/her time, and would not be relocating or driving long distances to serve in person.  In this post-Covid era there is a new culture-wide acceptance and recognition of the potential for online coaching to make a real difference; both for individuals and organizations.  It’s no secret: Many pastors, once they retire, welcome an opportunity to serve in some ministry capacity. 

Second, many if not most of the congregations dealing with long, extended vacancies already have talented and faithful lay leaders who have a vested interest in wanting their congregations to not only survive but thrive.  I am convinced that many of these lay leaders should be recruited, commissioned and trained as part-time lay ministers for their congregations.  And some of these lay ministers need to be encouraged to consider an online seminary education while they serve. 

This is where I see real hope and promise in the years ahead: Helping part-time, commissioned lay ministers and retired pastors connect in a meaningful way to serve Christ’s church; a church that is definitely in crisis.

Lutheran CORE is offering a new ministry to address this crisis: the Congregational Lay-leadership Initiative, or CLI.  This is by no means the only way to address this clergy shortage, but it is one way.

To learn more about CLI we now have complete information available on the Lutheran CORE website.  Or, email me personally at pastordonbrandt@gmail.com.